Unpacking Innovation Diffusion Theory - Part 2: Compatibility
In the first article of this series, "Unpacking the 5 Core Attributes of Innovation Diffusion Theory", we explored the concept of 'Relative Advantage.' I showed how applying this concept to innovations in areas like Identity Verification and Embedded Finance supports their ongoing rise. This article focuses on the next core attribute in Rogers' framework: Compatibility. According to Everett's framework (which I introduced earlier),
'Compatibility' depends on the answer to this question:
"Is the idea or technology in harmony with the prevailing norms, values, and beliefs of the affected population?"
In other words, individuals are more likely to adopt an idea or technology if it feels familiar and, therefore, poses a less perceived risk. There are some qualitative social complexities to take into account here, the most curious of which is how vital the naming of an innovation or idea is. Rogers stresses in his book, The Diffusion of Innovation, that the name of an innovation affects how meaningful it is to potential users.
(This also opens up an interesting argument on disruptive vs. incremental innovation - inferring that incremental innovation may be more palatable for potential adopters. Though perhaps this is a discussion for a different time!)
So how does this definition work with innovations we can see around us today? Let’s look at the idea of the metaverse. While it can be traced back nearly 30 years ago to Neal Stephenson's (excellent) novel, Snow Crash, it has gained enormous attention over the past year. But it's still an open question whether the metaverse will become a reality as envisioned by its promoters.
We can apply Rogers' attributes affecting the diffusion of any innovation to help predict the path. Applying the concept of 'compatibility' to the adoption rate of the metaverse, we note the following:
The Covid-19 pandemic changed the norms, standards, and culture of engagement, with lockdowns forcing communications with loved ones and colleagues to switch to digital en masse.
But even before this, Fortnite and platforms like Roblox gained massive user bases among teens and even younger in the world of interactive gaming. Users of these platforms became used to interacting with others as avatars in a virtual world.
These shifts - to digital communication and virtual interaction via avatars - have arguably laid the foundations for more rapid and widespread adoption of metaverse technologies.
As many physical forms of interaction (like concerts) are only coming back recently, and our move to digital communication has taken root, the metaverse has become more "compatible with the 'prevailing norms, values and beliefs."
Increasingly, the idea of the metaverse correlates with existing [digital] culture and, by doing so, limits uncertainty for potential users, so diffusion (spread) is likely to be rapid - for end users. However, it's still unclear whether the rise of the metaverse does not disrupt the status quo too much for the organizations whose users embrace this new medium.
More on this in future articles, which will cover the other attributes, starting with 'Complexity' next time.
See you then!